Forecasting By Committee Is How Empires Collapse

Why FP&A Needs Decision Ownership, Not Consensus Theater

Most FP&A teams mistake “inclusive” forecasting for accuracy.
They gather inputs from every function, run endless meetings, and stitch together a model built on 20 competing opinions.

It feels democratic. It looks collaborative. Leadership calls it “alignment.”

But it’s not forecasting. It’s consensus theater. And it misses, quarter after quarter.

The Blind Spot

Here’s what forecasting by committee really produces:

Sales pads pipeline because missing is career suicide.
Marketing inflates ROI to protect budget.
Ops sandbags costs to dodge scrutiny.
Finance averages it all together and calls it “balanced.”

What you get isn’t a forecast. It’s a compromise nobody trusts.

The Fallout

Committee forecasts fail not just on accuracy, but on accountability.

No ownership. Everyone contributes, nobody is responsible.
Slow cycles. Weeks disappear into workshops that generate noise, not clarity.
False confidence. Leaders see consensus, assume alignment, and get blindsided when reality diverges.

The slide deck looks polished. But the insight is hollow.

The Forecast Ownership Framework

At The Schlott Company, we help CFOs kill consensus theater and replace it with accountability-driven forecasting. Our framework:

Single Point Ownership — Every driver has one accountable owner, not a committee.
Evidence-Based Inputs — Assumptions built on data, not politics.
Transparent Adjustments — FP&A flexes inputs, but adjustments are documented.
Decision Accountability — Forecasts tie back to who owns the outcome.

When ownership is clear, forecasting sharpens.

Why It Matters

Forecasting by committee feels safe. But safety is the enemy of accuracy. Without ownership, misses get rationalized, wins get misattributed, and the company drifts.

Ownership creates pressure. Pressure creates accountability. Accountability creates accuracy.

And accuracy is what boards, investors, and employees need most.