When a Visa Costs More Than an Engineer’s Salary

Why FP&A Must Model Policy Shock Like Market Shock

Indian IT shares dropped sharply after reports that the U.S. may introduce a $100,000 H-1B visa application fee, a move tied to proposals from former President Donald Trump’s campaign. The change could hit a $283 billion Indian IT services industry, heavily reliant on H-1B visas to staff projects for U.S. clients.

Companies like Infosys, TCS, and Wipro send thousands of engineers abroad each year. At $100,000 per application, the cost structure of outsourcing would flip overnight, rewriting delivery economics and threatening profitability.

Why This Matters in FP&A

For FP&A leaders, this isn’t just politics. It’s a live-fire exercise in policy risk forecasting — an area too many financial models ignore.

Visa Fee Impact on IT Margins. A sudden six-figure fee would erode margins unless offset by higher billing rates or rapid automation. FP&A must model multiple fee levels, not just hope for the best.
Talent Pipeline Disruption. If visas become cost-prohibitive, delivery centers in the U.S. face staffing shortages. FP&A must forecast capacity limits against committed revenue.
Scenario Planning for Policy Shocks. Just like currency swings or inflation, regulatory changes can hit OPEX instantly. CFOs need FP&A teams to stress-test how fast policy can move the numbers.
Investor Confidence in Indian IT. Valuations rest on predictable access to U.S. demand. If access weakens, FP&A must prepare for earnings multiples to shift.

Forecasts that ignore government policy aren’t cautious — they’re reckless.

The Bigger Picture

The Indian IT industry earns nearly 60% of its revenue from U.S. clients. A $100K visa fee would force a structural rethink: nearshore hiring in the U.S., accelerated automation, or shifting delivery hubs closer to clients. Each path comes with new FP&A assumptions — capital investment, margin resets, and altered growth curves.