When “Signed but Not Live” Breaks Your Forecast

The ARR you celebrate but can’t spend yet.

Why Contracted but Not Yet Live ARR Forecasting Matters

Every SaaS CFO celebrates signed contracts. They’re booked in Salesforce, paraded at all-hands, and baked into the forecast.

But forecasting contracted but not yet live ARR in SaaS FP&A is where most models fail. Signed ARR isn’t the same as live ARR. Customers sign before implementation, before invoicing, sometimes months before go-live.

Most models assume revenue starts the moment ink dries. Reality says otherwise.

It’s like planting seeds and penciling in harvest dates before the soil is even turned.

The Fallout of Ignoring Not-Yet-Live ARR

When Finance skips ARR implementation lag modeling, the consequences ripple:

• Revenue credibility — Forecasts show growth that hasn’t started billing.

• Cash flow distortion — Liquidity looks stronger than reality.

• Margin compression — Onboarding costs hit before offsetting revenue.

• Board frustration — Leadership loses faith when Finance misses timing gaps.

This isn’t timing noise. It’s structural risk.

The Technical Weakness in Most SaaS Models

Standard models:

• Treat booked ARR as immediately live.

• Ignore onboarding and deployment timelines.

• Apply flat renewals without accounting for delayed starts.

The result? Excel curves that collapse when actuals arrive.

How The Schlott Company Improves ARR Forecasting

At The Schlott Company, we help SaaS finance teams bridge the gap between booked and live ARR:

1. Contract-to-Revenue Mapping — Linking bookings to go-live dates and first invoices.

2. Implementation Lag Modeling — Segmenting SMB vs. enterprise timelines with average ramps.

3. Cash Flow Alignment — Showing when invoices issue versus when revenue recognizes.

4. Scenario Stress Testing — Testing pipeline impacts of onboarding bottlenecks or delays.

5. Narrative Clarity — Framing ARR timing gaps as operational realities, not Finance mistakes.

The transformation? Finance sets expectations before the quarter closes, not excuses afterward.

A Framework for FP&A Teams

Step 1: Identify Timing Gaps

Pull historical data: what’s the lag from contract signed to go-live?

Step 2: Segment by Customer Size

Model SMB with short delays, enterprise with longer.

Step 3: Tie Costs to Timing

Onboarding costs modeled ahead of revenue.

Step 4: Separate Cash and ARR

Model invoices separately from recognized revenue.

Step 5: Stress Test

What if implementation lengthens by 20%?

Why SaaS CFOs Can’t Avoid This

Investors and boards look for precision. Overstating ARR erodes credibility and valuation. Modeling signed vs. live ARR forecasting in SaaS FP&A builds trust — even if it makes the near-term outlook messier.

The Analogy That Fits

Treating contracted ARR as live is like treating a plane ticket as a completed flight. You’ve booked it, but you haven’t traveled. Counting miles without takeoff is fantasy.

Why Teams Skip It

• Messy data — Onboarding timelines tracked inconsistently.

• Ownership gaps — Sales books deals, Finance inherits delays.

• Leadership bias — Clean models valued over jagged truths.

But clean curves don’t win credibility. Reality does.

The Schlott Company Advantage

We give SaaS finance leaders the tools and clarity to forecast reality:

• Precision — Mapping booked ARR to go-live timelines.

• Visibility — Cash and revenue separated cleanly.

• Board confidence — Timing gaps explained before variance hits.

The Shocking Close

ARR isn’t ARR until it’s live.

Ignore that, and your forecast is already lying.

The SaaS companies that win won’t be the ones who just celebrate signatures.
They’ll be the ones whose Finance teams forecast reality — down to the day invoices start.