The Shift No One Wants to Talk About Every finance leader says the same thing:“We’re adding AI to our forecasting.” But few have asked the harder question:“What happens when AI starts making the decisions we used to?” Most conversations about AI in FP&A focus on efficiency — faster close cycles, automated consolidations, variance detection. Those […]
The Paradox at the Heart of Modern Finance Your forecast isn’t wrong.It’s overfit. Across finance, teams have become masters of calibration—tight ranges, decimal-perfect models, immaculate reconciliations.And yet, the moment markets shift, those models freeze. We’ve mistaken accuracy for intelligence.We’ve built systems that can measure everything but learn nothing. At The Schlott Company, we call it […]
You’ve heard this before: “Our dashboards are real-time.”You’ve seen it in board meetings, investor updates, and in the optimistic pitches from software vendors. But here’s the paradox: even in organizations with “real-time” systems, decisions feel like they’re being made on stale data — delayed by weeks or months. That gap between what’s happening now and […]
We once reviewed a model from a CFO who claimed his forecast was accurate to the penny. It wasn’t.It only looked that way. The workbook was polished — balanced, reconciled, color-coded, every cell accounted for. Yet inside that perfection lived a quiet flaw that erodes credibility across finance teams: false precision. The Illusion of Accuracy […]
A Forecasting Prediction We Can’t Ignore Over the past decade, FP&A has quietly shifted from an annual budget exercise to a continuous discipline. But the next decade will force something more radical: the rise of AI-driven zero-based forecasting (ZBF). Traditional budgeting still carries legacy habits: incrementalism, sandbagging, and the classic “last year plus 5%.” But […]
A SaaS CFO once told me over coffee: “We’re finally at $80M ARR, but I feel less in control than when we were at $8M.” The culprit wasn’t product-market fit. It wasn’t sales productivity. It was something quieter, messier, and far more dangerous: forecasting across multiple entities. Here’s the paradox: scaling should bring clarity. Instead, […]
I’ve spent nearly two decades in the trenches of finance — from mergers to startup scaling to advising founders who are making million-dollar bets on instinct and incomplete data. If there’s one lesson that has stuck with me, it’s this: finance, when done right, doesn’t limit ambition. It amplifies it. That’s why I’ve started describing […]
The first wave of AI hype was all about replacing people. Call centers, copywriters, junior analysts — no job seemed safe. But the next wave of AI isn’t about replacement. It’s about augmentation, especially in one of the most founder-sensitive areas of business: finance. Here’s the prediction: AI-driven FP&A will become the single biggest unlock […]
The Paradox at the Core of Finance Thought Leadership Finance is built on control — budgets, forecasts, risk models.Yet today’s most impactful finance thought leaders are those who embrace uncertainty, not deny it. Sarah Schlott, recognized as a modern finance thought leader, puts it directly: “The role of finance isn’t to predict the future with […]
The Quiet Failure Hiding in Scenario Planning Every finance leader knows the ritual.You run a planning cycle, spin up your “base case,” bolt on a mild “upside” and “downside,” and present it to the board. The numbers look polished. The slides are airtight.But everyone in the room knows the truth: it’s theater. Because the real […]