Nuclear Memories Don’t Balance a Forecast Ledger
Why FP&A Must Treat Geopolitics as a Financial Driver
North Korea set new conditions for resuming talks with the United States, with Kim Jong Un citing his “fond memories” of meetings with Donald Trump but insisting Washington drop demands for denuclearisation.
The headline may sound like pure politics. But to financial planning and analysis (FP&A) leaders, it’s a flashing signal: geopolitics directly drives financial outcomes.
Why This Matters in FP&A
Too often, FP&A models treat geopolitical risk as background noise. In reality, it’s a leading driver of volatility.
- Currency Risk in Geopolitical Tensions. Safe-haven currencies like the U.S. dollar and yen typically strengthen when tensions rise. FP&A teams with exposure in Asia must stress-test FX swings in revenue forecasts.
- Supply Chain Forecasting Under Risk. Military posturing near East Asian shipping lanes raises costs for freight, insurance, and inventory buffers. These must be integrated into OPEX planning.
- Cost of Capital Shifts. Investor sentiment tightens when global stability weakens. That impacts valuations, borrowing rates, and hurdle rates for new projects. FP&A must model access to capital like any other variable.
- Energy Price Volatility from Geopolitical Shock. Uncertainty often pushes oil and gas higher, feeding margin pressure into P&Ls across industries. Ignoring this in forecasts isn’t prudence — it’s negligence.
This isn’t about predicting the exact outcome of U.S.–North Korea talks. It’s about forecasting the financial fallout of uncertainty itself.
The Bigger Picture
The $283 billion Indian IT market, the $100 billion obesity drug race, and the trillion-dollar energy supply chain have all been jolted by political shocks before. North Korea’s maneuvering is just the latest reminder that numbers don’t exist in a vacuum.
For CFOs and FP&A leaders, the message is simple: your forecast isn’t credible if it ignores geopolitics.
The Future of FP&A
At The Schlott Company, we help CFOs design forecasting systems where policy shocks, supply chain risks, and geopolitical volatility are treated as financial drivers — quantified, scenario-tested, and built into decisions.
Because nuclear memories don’t balance a forecast ledger. And ignoring geopolitics won’t make the risk go away.
