The GTM Forecast Gap: Why Sales Feels the Model Is Useless (And What to Do About It)
Finance says the model works.
Sales says it doesn’t reflect reality.
Both are right—and that’s the problem.
In 2025, SaaS companies don’t fail because they missed their number.
They fail because no one could agree what the number even was.
We’ve seen it over and over: the FP&A team builds a solid top-down model…
…and the GTM team ignores it by mid-quarter.
This isn’t a data issue.
It’s an integration failure between what’s modeled and what’s actually happening in the field.
Here’s how we rebuild the GTM-Finance link inside the forecast—so the model becomes the operating system, not just a board artifact.
The Disconnect That Breaks the Forecast
The typical finance model still starts with sales targets and average deal size.
It models linear pipeline progression.
It assumes CAC and payback stay constant.
And it gets signed off in January.
But here’s what’s happening in May:
Pipeline shifted to enterprise
Mid-market CAC spiked
Sales velocity dropped by 20%
And finance is still reporting “on plan”
If your GTM team rolls their eyes when the CFO presents forecast data, you’re not managing a company—you’re managing a disconnect.
What a Sales-Aligned Forecast Actually Looks Like
The best forecasting models don’t try to predict GTM.
They reflect it—weekly.
That means:
GTM inputs are owned by sales and marketing, not finance alone
Sales velocity and conversion are cohort-based, not flat averages
Comp plan shifts are modeled by segment and impact cash
Forecast syncs are weekly, not quarterly
When this works, sales doesn’t just trust finance. They rely on it.
Because the model stops being a scoreboard—and becomes a GPS.
Bullet List: Signs Your GTM and Forecast Are Misaligned
- Your sales team still runs its own shadow forecast
- Marketing pipeline targets don’t reconcile with finance
- Comp plan changes aren’t modeled until after they launch
- Sales leaders “gut check” your CAC numbers in every meeting
- Scenario planning doesn’t include GTM risk inputs
If this is familiar, the issue isn’t your team—it’s your structure.
One Table: What We Track Weekly to Keep GTM and Forecasts Aligned
| Metric | Owner | Update Frequency | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pipeline Coverage by Tier | Sales Ops | Weekly | Tells us volume + deal shape trends |
| CAC by Segment | Marketing | Weekly | Tracks GTM efficiency as it shifts |
| Close Rate by Persona | Sales Enablement | Biweekly | Surfaces gaps in messaging or targeting |
| SDR Productivity | RevOps | Weekly | Flags pipeline risk early |
| Comp Plan Impact Model | Finance | Monthly | Models changes to cash + bookings mix |
This is how we rebuild the model—not as a spreadsheet artifact, but a live coordination tool across the go-to-market machine.
What We’ve Learned
When GTM teams don’t use the forecast, it’s not because they don’t believe in modeling.
It’s because they’ve never been invited to co-own it.
The most effective SaaS companies we work with don’t build two forecasts.
They build one forecast everyone trusts—because everyone helped build it.
If your GTM leaders are managing in parallel to finance, you’re not scaling—you’re splitting.
We help finance teams integrate GTM logic into their models so the forecast becomes the single source of truth—trusted, used, and activated by every team.
If that’s not your reality yet, reach out.We’ll show you exactly how to close the gap—and turn the forecast into a growth weapon.
