Why FP&A Must Forecast Competitor Moves — Not Just Company Metrics

Most FP&A teams act like competitors don’t exist.
Forecasts are built entirely on internal assumptions: revenue, churn, headcount, expenses.

But markets don’t move in a vacuum. Your forecast doesn’t just depend on you — it depends on them.

The Blind Spot

Here’s what happens when FP&A ignores competitors:

You model pricing as stable while a rival slashes 20% overnight.
You assume churn stays flat while a new entrant steals your best accounts.
You forecast expansion in a region just as a competitor opens shop there.

Your spreadsheet may be airtight. But if your model leaves out competitive dynamics, it’s already broken.

A Framework for FP&A Competitive Forecasting

At The Schlott Company, we help CFOs integrate competitor intelligence directly into FP&A. The process:

Market Signal Tracking — Monitor competitor press releases, fundraising, hiring, and product launches. These are early warning signs.
Competitive Scenarios — Build what-if models around competitor moves, not just your own.
Impact Modeling — Quantify how changes in pricing, market entry, or product overlap affect pipeline, churn, and margins.
Decision Readiness — Tie each forecast to specific responses. If they cut prices, what’s your move? If they launch new products, how do you defend?

Why It Matters

A forecast that ignores competition is fiction. The companies that win are the ones that anticipate rival moves before they land — and adjust faster than the market expects.

The risk of ignoring competitive forecasting? You’re modeling a game where you think you’re the only player on the field.

The reward? Agility. Resilience. And the credibility of being the team that saw disruption coming before it hit the P&L.