Why FP&A Needs Capacity for Human Energy in Forecasts Most FP&A models assume people are machines. Productivity per headcount is fixed, output per hire never wavers, and teams deliver indefinitely at full tilt. But businesses don’t run on perfect constants. They run on people. And when FP&A ignores human energy, forecasts might balance on […]
https://theschlottco.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/pexels-goumbik-590016-1.jpg7951200Sarah Schlotthttps://theschlottco.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/logo-schlottco-1.pngSarah Schlott2025-09-17 13:42:292025-09-17 22:10:50Spreadsheets Don’t Sweat, But Your Team Does
Most FP&A teams act like competitors don’t exist.Forecasts are built entirely on internal assumptions: revenue, churn, headcount, expenses. But markets don’t move in a vacuum. Your forecast doesn’t just depend on you — it depends on them. The Blind Spot Here’s what happens when FP&A ignores competitors: You model pricing as stable while a rival […]
https://theschlottco.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/pexels-fauxels-3183131.jpg8001200Sarah Schlotthttps://theschlottco.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/logo-schlottco-1.pngSarah Schlott2025-09-16 23:53:002025-09-17 22:10:50Why FP&A Must Forecast Competitor Moves — Not Just Company Metrics
Sensitivity analysis should reveal where your model is fragile.Instead, most FP&A teams use it like a parlor trick — tweaking numbers without learning anything. Here are six ways sensitivity analysis fails in FP&A: 1. Only Stressing the “Obvious” Drivers Revenue growth, churn, pricing. Yes, they matter. But so do implementation delays and adoption rates. The […]
Finance teams obsess over numbers: revenue, margins, headcount.But the one driver that rarely makes it into the forecast — and quietly determines all the rest — is trust. When trust erodes inside a company, the financial impact is immediate and brutal: Sales cycles stretch because prospects don’t believe promises. Renewal rates collapse when customers doubt […]
Everyone loves a scenario model. Base case, upside, downside.But here’s the dirty secret: most FP&A teams don’t assign probabilities — or worse, they assign them blindly. Here are five ways teams botch probability in FP&A scenario planning: 1. Defaulting to 70/20/10 Splits The lazy template. Base case 70%, upside 20%, downside 10%. If your “probabilities” […]
Variance analysis is supposed to explain why numbers shifted.Instead, most FP&A teams turn it into a ritual — a performance that eats hours but explains nothing. Here are the seven deadly sins that prove your variance analysis is broken: 1. Worshipping Tiny Deviations Arguing about office supplies being 8% over budget while churn jumped 15%. […]
FP&A teams worship financial statements. Revenue. Margins. Cash burn. But here’s the catch: the numbers you see in the P&L are lagging indicators. The real drivers of performance often aren’t financial at all. If you’re only tracking dollars, you’re blind to the levers that actually move them. Here are five ways FP&A fails when it […]
Everyone in finance loves to say: “Cash is king.” But here’s the problem — most FP&A teams still treat cash flow like a reporting afterthought, not the strategic driver it really is. If you want to know whether your finance team truly understands cash, watch for these six red flags: 1. Cash Flow Reviewed Only […]
https://theschlottco.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/pexels-linkedin-2182969.jpg8001200Sarah Schlotthttps://theschlottco.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/logo-schlottco-1.pngSarah Schlott2025-09-16 10:20:242025-09-17 22:10:546 Red Flags Your FP&A Team Doesn’t Understand Cash Flow
Every CFO says they want “more scenarios.”Best case. Base case. Downside case. But here’s the truth: most FP&A teams aren’t running scenarios. They’re performing them. Like a stage play where the ending never changes. These are the four biggest signs you’re stuck in scenario theater: 1. Every Case Looks Like the Base Case If your […]
https://theschlottco.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/pexels-pixabay-265087-1.jpg8001200Sarah Schlotthttps://theschlottco.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/logo-schlottco-1.pngSarah Schlott2025-09-16 10:14:532025-09-17 22:10:554 Signs Your FP&A Team Is Drowning in “Scenario Theater”
Every finance leader swears their biggest issue is “data quality.”It’s the universal scapegoat. The easy villain. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: in most cases, the data is fine.It’s the people and the processes that are broken. These are the five biggest lies FP&A teams keep telling themselves: 1. “We can’t forecast because the data is […]
https://theschlottco.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/15.jpg11551732Sarah Schlotthttps://theschlottco.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/logo-schlottco-1.pngSarah Schlott2025-09-16 10:11:402025-09-17 22:10:565 Lies FP&A Teams Tell Themselves About Data Quality
Spreadsheets Don’t Sweat, But Your Team Does
Why FP&A Needs Capacity for Human Energy in Forecasts Most FP&A models assume people are machines. Productivity per headcount is fixed, output per hire never wavers, and teams deliver indefinitely at full tilt. But businesses don’t run on perfect constants. They run on people. And when FP&A ignores human energy, forecasts might balance on […]
Why FP&A Must Forecast Competitor Moves — Not Just Company Metrics
Most FP&A teams act like competitors don’t exist.Forecasts are built entirely on internal assumptions: revenue, churn, headcount, expenses. But markets don’t move in a vacuum. Your forecast doesn’t just depend on you — it depends on them. The Blind Spot Here’s what happens when FP&A ignores competitors: You model pricing as stable while a rival […]
6 Ways FP&A Gets Sensitivity Analysis Wrong
Sensitivity analysis should reveal where your model is fragile.Instead, most FP&A teams use it like a parlor trick — tweaking numbers without learning anything. Here are six ways sensitivity analysis fails in FP&A: 1. Only Stressing the “Obvious” Drivers Revenue growth, churn, pricing. Yes, they matter. But so do implementation delays and adoption rates. The […]
Why FP&A Needs to Start Modeling Trust
Finance teams obsess over numbers: revenue, margins, headcount.But the one driver that rarely makes it into the forecast — and quietly determines all the rest — is trust. When trust erodes inside a company, the financial impact is immediate and brutal: Sales cycles stretch because prospects don’t believe promises. Renewal rates collapse when customers doubt […]
5 Ways FP&A Gets Scenario Probabilities Completely Wrong
Everyone loves a scenario model. Base case, upside, downside.But here’s the dirty secret: most FP&A teams don’t assign probabilities — or worse, they assign them blindly. Here are five ways teams botch probability in FP&A scenario planning: 1. Defaulting to 70/20/10 Splits The lazy template. Base case 70%, upside 20%, downside 10%. If your “probabilities” […]
7 Deadly Sins of FP&A Variance Analysis
Variance analysis is supposed to explain why numbers shifted.Instead, most FP&A teams turn it into a ritual — a performance that eats hours but explains nothing. Here are the seven deadly sins that prove your variance analysis is broken: 1. Worshipping Tiny Deviations Arguing about office supplies being 8% over budget while churn jumped 15%. […]
5 Ways FP&A Teams Fail at Tracking Non-Financial Metrics
FP&A teams worship financial statements. Revenue. Margins. Cash burn. But here’s the catch: the numbers you see in the P&L are lagging indicators. The real drivers of performance often aren’t financial at all. If you’re only tracking dollars, you’re blind to the levers that actually move them. Here are five ways FP&A fails when it […]
6 Red Flags Your FP&A Team Doesn’t Understand Cash Flow
Everyone in finance loves to say: “Cash is king.” But here’s the problem — most FP&A teams still treat cash flow like a reporting afterthought, not the strategic driver it really is. If you want to know whether your finance team truly understands cash, watch for these six red flags: 1. Cash Flow Reviewed Only […]
4 Signs Your FP&A Team Is Drowning in “Scenario Theater”
Every CFO says they want “more scenarios.”Best case. Base case. Downside case. But here’s the truth: most FP&A teams aren’t running scenarios. They’re performing them. Like a stage play where the ending never changes. These are the four biggest signs you’re stuck in scenario theater: 1. Every Case Looks Like the Base Case If your […]
5 Lies FP&A Teams Tell Themselves About Data Quality
Every finance leader swears their biggest issue is “data quality.”It’s the universal scapegoat. The easy villain. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: in most cases, the data is fine.It’s the people and the processes that are broken. These are the five biggest lies FP&A teams keep telling themselves: 1. “We can’t forecast because the data is […]